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From: Jasper
Date: 6/25/03
Time: 11:18:27 AM
Remote User:
John,
I test theories all the time. Much of what we do on the boards is testing theories. What I don’t believe in is trying to PROVE theories.
When I get a theory that seems plausible, my first order of business is to try to shoot it down – to look for mistakes. I try to determine if it was possible. I then I try to narrow it down to the highest level of probability. An improbable answer could be the correct one, so I try to reduce the improbable to the impossible. I modify the theory or discard it if it doesn’t stand up in light of new information.
The essence of my use of theories is prediction. The operative word is “if.” IF the theory is correct based on what I know or what I think I know, future discoveries will support it. If it’s wrong, future discoveries will contradict it. That’s why it’s now important to me to know if Miss Marple’s recollection of what Kato said about his talk with Fuhrman is really what he said in Eliot’s book. It won’t “prove” anything by itself but it should help in determining whether Kato’s story or Fuhrman’s conforms more to the laws of physics and the patterns of behavior we learned about Kato and Fuhrman.
Citing a page number for a quote is useful only if we have the context for the quote. For instance, when you say that Kato lied about one thing or another and quote something that differs from a previous statement of his or a relevant statement by someone else, the reason for the discrepancy could be on the next page, a previous page, another chapter or another source. I don’t worry about that with Charlie, Kari, Jean, Lollie, Rose, or Miss Marple because they routinely look for their mistakes and consider the possibility that they could have made them. You look for quotes to “prove” your theory and defend it against all evidence to the contrary or jump to somethng else.
In the matter of Kato’s word vs. Fuhrman’s, there are only two possibilities: 1) Kato invented the thumps and used Fuhrman (because he was convenient) to “find” the glove or 2) Fuhrman used Kato (because he was convenient) as part of a plan that included the thumps. I still don’t know why you take Fuhrman’s word as “proof” that Kato lied. On the other hand, who knows what Lollie will find? In testing my theory about the detectives heading for the last condo I found information that helps you. Maybe Lollie will do the same. –Jasper