The Smoking Gun

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Re: Figuring the Odds/the Answer (don't read until you have t...

 

From: Jasper
Date: 10/21/01
Time: 7:13:17 PM

Comments

The Bundy murder case has no shortage of evidence or theories to explain the evidence. What's missing is a template that everyone can use to see which explanation is most likely to be true. The Zener card guessing protocol is a pretty good template.

Any score on the ESP test between 2 and 8 is statistically the same because you can expect that much actual variation by chance from the theoretical chance expectation of 5. A single score of 9 or above also fits within the boundaries of chance. But if, after many runs, you see that you are consistently getting low scores of 1 and 0 or high scores of 9 and above, you know that something other than chance has to be at work.

Only three things can explain Mark Fuhrman's association with 100 percent of the evidence against O.J. and corresponding scenes in the movies: 1) Chance, 2) fraud, 3) ESP. The only way to measure ESP is to rule out coincidence and fraud. The only way to measure fraud is to rule out coincidence and ESP. There is no such thing as a valid score of 100 percent 100 percent of the time on an ESP test.

The second Bundy animation offers a way to apply the test to all of the evidence associated with Mark Fuhrman. That's because the five items of evidence at the feet of Ronald Goldman (like the five Zener cards) have a corresponding relationship to the five items of evidence at the feet of the slain prostitute in Jack the Ripper (like matching cards). They appear in the same clockwise relationship to each other and there are clusters within clusters that match almost perfectly.

Given the number of items that could have appeared at the feet of Ronald Goldman in the Fuhrman photo by chance, what are the odds that there would be exactly five of them (as oppose to two or three or six)? What are the odds that each one of them would match the size and shape, the material, the special orientation or the trace evidence value of the items in the corresponding location in the movie? What about Goldman's keys? What about his beeper? Why weren't they in the picture? And what would have happened to the one-for-one match-up if they had been?

The ESP test may not be the ultimate way of measuring ESP, but it is a dynamite way of measuring chance and prior knowledge of the answers. When you take the ESP test you can see how chance alone can account for a small number of instances where the evidence that matches O.J. also matches Fuhrman or Fuhrman's notes or his discovers or his theories or that picture of him pointing to the Bundy glove. But you need something other than chance to explain why there are so many such match-ups and why so many of them appear only in the movies. --Jasper

Last changed: October 19, 2008